Kenyan women fetch water the morning after it rained for the first time in over a year in Turkana. Lynsey Addario/Getty Images Climate change and its associated impacts can worsen security challenges, including those associated with violent extremism.
This is particularly the case in areas that are both vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and characterised by social and political instability.
In north-eastern Kenya, for instance, droughts, flooding and livelihood destruction are unfolding alongside, and worsening, activity by al-Shabaab, a terrorist network headquartered in Somalia. The terror group has evolved from carrying out large-scale attacks in Kenya, such as the Westgate Mall attack (in 2013) and the Garissa University attack (2015), to persistent, low-intensity attacks and broader community engagement in the border region.
Despite these overlapping crises, the understanding of how climate change and violent extremism interact remains limited.
As a multidisciplinary team, we set out to address this gap through workshops with policymakers and practitioners working across relevant policy areas in Nairobi and north-eastern Kenya, as well as focus groups and interviews with community members and leaders in the region.
Our findings highlight how in vulnerable environments, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. It intensifies:
social fragmentation, by increasing the strain on social networks
psychological strain, through the scale of destruction caused by cumulative climate events
institutional weaknesses, by increasing pressure on public services and government access.
These conditions provide increased opportunities for extremists to influence or coerce the local population.
When we spoke with local herders and community leaders in north-eastern Kenya, we found that the impact of climate change left local communities more vulnerable to recruitment by extremists. At the same time, al-Shabaab activities in the area made it harder for communities to adapt to a changing environment. This reinforces a cycle of fragility.
Climate impacts and insecurity are interwoven dynamics that shape everyday life, governance and prospects for stability in north-eastern Kenya.
Our findings challenge the idea that climate change and security can be addressed separately. Effective responses must combine environmental, social and security strategies to build long-term resilience.
For pastoralists in the north-eastern Kenyan counties of Garissa and Wajir, keeping livestock is not just a job. It is their identity, their food security and their children’s future.
However, as droughts and flash floods become more frequent, herds are being decimated. In times of desperation, al-Shabaab positions itself as a provider.
When the land dries up, animals die, farms fail, and people go hungry, especially the youth, they become desperate. Al-Shabaab knows this and exploits it. They offer food, money, and what seems like ‘purpose’ to young boys who feel abandoned by their own government.
What we had not anticipated before undertaking this research was the profound emotional toll of climate change and how this is creating ideal conditions for al-Shabaab recruitment. The loss of livestock causes a deep sense of shame among men who can no longer fulfil their role as providers.
We are men, supposed to provide, but we found ourselves helpless.
In a culture where “a man without animals is seen as a child, no matter his age”, as one respondent put it, this loss of status leads to depression and hopelessness.
Extremist groups exploit this emotional emptiness. They offer a sense of status to men who feel they have lost everything else.
